Every football program loses the occasional game they probably should have won. Whether because an opponent was overlooked, oddly matched up, or the favorite just had an off-day, these things can just happen. But that doesn’t make them sting any less.
During the height of the Skip Holtz era at Louisiana Tech, we noticed a fairly loose trend. It seemed that every year, regardless of how good the team was, the Bulldogs would have one Baffling Conference Loss. As in a loss to a fellow C-USA school that we had no business falling to.
But some of these losses are worse than others. For example, Tech has faced off against Old Dominion twice before and lost both times in Norfolk. The more recent of the two featured a game winning field goal for the Monarchs as time expired, but seeing as the Bulldogs lost 6 of their 8 C-USA games that year, it would be truly difficult to call any of them “baffling.” If anything, the defeat of North Texas that year might be called a Baffling Conference Win.
But the first matchup against ODU came during one of Skip’s better seasons in Ruston, 2014. And with the Monarchs finally making a return trip to Ruston this week, what better time is there to figure out if that was the most Baffling Conference Loss in school history?
To figure that out, we’re going to be using the Simple Rating System, or SRS. This is a tool that ranks teams based on their full-season scoring margin and strength of schedule. And particularly useful for us, it goes as far back as 1975. So while it won’t tell us how bad our lone conference loss to Centenary in 1922 was, it still gives us a pretty good idea for the modern era.
And the methodology using SRS is pretty simple. From all of Tech’s conference losses from 1975 to today, which had the biggest SRS gap between the Bulldogs and the team that beat them?
Tech: 75th
SRS Gap: 24
UAB: 99th
Going into this matchup in Birmingham, Tech was 8-1 and unbeaten in C-USA play heading into the final stretch. Then QB J’Mar Smith and leading WR Adrian Hardy were suspended for “violating athletic department policy,” aka smoking weed.
The suspension covered both a game against Marshall and this one against the Blazers. So redshirt freshman QB Aaron Allen got the start.
It was still close. Down 20-14, Tech had the ball at its own 16 with 2:28 left to play. On first down, RB Israel Tucker had a deep ball hit him in the hands with nothing between him and the endzone and dropped the ball. And on fourth down, UAB’s AJ Brooks knocked away the pass.
With the win, the Blazers took the head-to-head tiebreaker and went to the C-USA title game instead of Tech.
But while (self-inflictedly) painful, it’s not baffling. The Bulldogs were playing without their starting quarterback and receiver, and it showed. But the game it tied with was quite a bit more baffling.
Tech: 100th
SRS Gap: 24
USM: 124th
The Golden Eagles came to Ruston 1-9 and winless in Conference USA. Tech, despite a 3-7 record of their own, was a 15.5-point favorite. Mostly because Southern Miss came into Joe Aillet Stadium with 0 healthy quarterbacks on their roster.
Four different players lined up under center that night. The most common was Frank Gore Jr, a running back, whose 4-of-8 passing and 75 air yards got him a QBR of 46.8. Meanwhile, Aaron Allen, Tech’s actual quarterback, had a QBR on the night of 4.0.
By halftime, USM had stunned the home crowd with a 21-9 lead, and that was despite a fumble on Southern Miss’s first offensive play of the game.
But Tech did put up a fight in the second half. Another fumble and a scoop and score by Trey Baldwin made it 21-19 with just under 12 minutes left.
But redshirt freshman defensive back Antavious Willis went 3-for-3 on the next drive, including a 20-yard touchdown pass to put the Golden Eagles back on top 28-19. Tech’s last two drives both ended in interceptions, the first of which was returned for a touchdown. In total, the Bulldogs turned the ball over five times.
It was Skip Holtz’s final home game at Louisiana Tech. Before the season finale the next week at Rice, Holtz and the university “mutually agreed” to part ways.
Skip died as he lived in Ruston, with a baffling conference loss.
Tech: 68th
SRS Gap: 25
Utah State: 93rd
Less than a month after the first ever Red Out game ended in a big win over Hawaii on national television, the Bulldogs traveled to Logan to take on Utah State, a team that Tech had a four game winning streak over.
Between the two teams, the game started with seven straight punts. Finally, Utah State broke through for a touchdown in the second quarter, and when Tech fumbled the ensuing kickoff, the Aggies quickly added three more.
In total, the first half saw Tech outscored 20-7 and outgained 245-66.
It wasn’t until the fourth quarter when the Bulldogs showed some signs of life. Ross Jenkins found a wide-open Dennis Morris for a 20-yard touchdown with 6:15 left to make it 23-21. But the two-point try failed. Tech got one more chance in the final two minutes, but a fourth-down throw to Adrian Linwood sailed over his head.
But this was only the first half of a bad October double feature. The very next Saturday, Tech went to Moscow for the next Baffling Conference Loss in this countdown.
Tech: 68th
SRS Gap: 26
Idaho: 94th
What could be more horrific than a Halloween Baffling Conference Loss in the Kibbie Dome?
Unlike the previous entries on this list, it wasn’t a slow start that doomed the Dogs. While Idaho did return the opening kickoff 94 yards for a touchdown, Tech answered with 21 straight points and led 28-14 at the half. Bulldog RB Myke Compton scored early in the fourth to push it to 34-21, but Matt Nelson missed the extra point.
The Vandals converted a fake punt to keep a drive alive and scored with just under six to play to make it a six point game. Then again with 52 seconds left to take a one point lead.
Tech got one final chance, but a 56-yard field goal attempt from Matt Nelson, trying to avenge his PAT miss earlier, went wide as time expired.
With a 2009 schedule that featured Auburn, Navy, #5 Boise State, and #9 LSU, the Bulldogs needed every win they could to get to bowl eligibility. These two losses kept them out at 4-8 on the year.
Tech: 85th
SRS Gap: 29
Delaware: 114th
Most of the afternoon in Newark was ugly. Tech trailed 16-7 in the fourth quarter after needing to play three different quarterbacks. But the defense and RB Clay Thevenin dragged Tech right back in it. Thevenin ran for 33 of Tech’s 55 yards on a drive that ended the Bulldog scoring drought with a field goal. Then, after a Blue Hen three-and-out, got into the endzone for the second time on the night to give the Bulldogs a 17-16 lead with three minutes left.
What seemed to seal the game was a Jacob Fields pick-six to put Tech up 24-16 with only 143 ticks left on the clock.
Delaware drove 75 yards down the field for a touchdown with 34 seconds left, but missed the two-point try that would have tied the game. But then kicker Nate Reed popped an onside kick that the Blue Hens recovered. Four plays later, Reed hit a 51-yarder with 12 seconds left. Delaware scored nine points in the final 34 seconds and won 25-24.
The only bright spot about this loss is that it ended up being one of the six wins Delaware had on the season, which meant they could go bowling. And that allowed them to take down Louisiana-Lafayette in Mobile at the 68 Ventures Bowl.
Tech: 61st
SRS Gap: 32
Southern Miss: 93rd
While Louisiana Tech had already clinched the C-USA West title and was riding a seven-game win streak, a win in the regular season finale would have meant hosting the C-USA Championship Game in Ruston. Meanwhile, Southern Miss was 5-6 and needed to overcome the 14-point underdog odds to reach bowl eligibility.
Southern Miss QB Nick Mullens had missed the previous two games with a concussion, but he came back for his final home game and threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, allowing him to become the USM career leader in touchdown passes right then and there.
Tech, meanwhile, ran for eight yards on the night. And Ryan Higgins (aka the Notorious H.I.G.) threw three interceptions on Tech’s way to a 39-24 loss.
Western Kentucky blew out Marshall 60-6, and got to host the C-USA Championship. And while Tech had defeated WKU at home earlier in the year, they fell in that road championship game 58-44.
Tech: 61st
SRS Gap: 35
MTSU: 96th
That’s right, another back-to-back ranking with a game from the same season. And this game was the other bookend of Tech’s 2016 conference play, the last Bulldog loss until that matchup with Southern Miss to end the regular season.
When it was clicking, the 2016 Tech offense could feel unstoppable. Ryan Higgins threw for 504 yards, only the third 500-yard passing game in program history and the first since Tim Rattay in 1999. Trent Taylor caught 17 passes for 210 yards, both career highs. Tech piled up 622 yards and led 27-7 early in the third quarter.
Then Blue Raider RB I’Tavius Mathers started the comeback with a 37-yard touchdown catch and ran for two more scores in the fourth. Tech RB Kam McKnight’s 1-yard plunge put Tech back up 34-31 with just under 4 left. But MTSU’s Brent Stockstill needed five plays to answer, hitting Ty Lee for a 23-yard touchdown with 2:36 to go.
The Bulldogs got as close as the Middle Tennessee six yard line in the final minute, but two incompletions on 3rd and 4th down ended any hopes of a comeback.
Oh, and the man drawing up the plays for MTSU’s offense that night? Former (and future) Tech offensive coordinator Tony Franklin.
Tech: 68th
SRS Gap: 35
UTA: 103rd
Told ya we had this going back to the 1970s.
Maxie Lambright’s 10th Tech team rolled into Arlington with a 1-3 record, ready to play a Maverick team in their last year of sharing a venue with the Texas Rangers. UTA ran the wishbone and scored on its first three possessions to go up 21-0 early in the second quarter. By the end of the night, the “Movin’ Mavs” had run for 485 yards, with fullback Derrick Jensen leading the way with 152.
Backup quarterback Steve Haynes came off the bench and kept Tech in shouting distance, at least for a bit. While Tech was only down 28-14 at the half, Mav safety Bill Bradshaw picked off Haynes at his own 5 and went 95 yards for a touchdown, and suddenly it was 42-14 UTA.
Again Tech made some noise, but it was far too little and far too late, with UTA completing their first win over the Bulldogs in 15 years in a 56-35 victory.
Steve Haynes finished with four touchdown passes, which tied the Tech school record set by Terry Bradshaw in 1968. But I’m sure Haynes would have much rather had that performance in a game where the defense didn’t allow the most points scored on Tech since 1967.
Tech: 42nd
SRS Gap: 49
Hawai'i: 91st
In the WAC opener for both teams, Tech scored first on a short Nick Isham pass to Quinton Patton. But after that, it was the Bryant Moniz show. The Hawai’i quarterback threw for 410 yards and four touchdowns, three of them in the first half to the same receiver. Hawai’i also scored on a 49-yard pick-six and a fumble return, and Tech never got closer than 18 the rest of the way.
But then Tech didn’t lose again for the rest of regular season, powered by a usurpment of Isham by Colby Cameron. Cameron led the Bulldogs to their first outright WAC title since 2001 and a Poinsettia Bowl berth.
Tech: 75th
SRS Gap: 49
USL: 124th
Saturday October 7th, 1978 was a big night for guys named Guidry in or from Lafayette. In New York, Ron “Louisiana Lightning” Guidry pitched the Yankees past the Royals to clinch the American League pennant. And in Lafayette, a quarterback named David Guidry absolutely ruined Tech’s night.
The Bulldogs were the defending Southland and Independence Bowl champions. Meanwhile Southwestern would finish this season 3-8 and were 16-point underdogs. Tech led 6-0 early, but after starting quarterback Keith Thibodeaux bruised his knee, the offense collapsed.
Guidry, who had come off the bench himself, threw two touchdown passes in the final four minutes of the first half, including a 60-yard TD pass that capitalized on a Tech fumble. It was 17-6 at halftime, and a third Guidry touchdown pass made it 24-6.
Thibodeaux and freshman Eric Barkley traded series the rest of the half before Barkley took over, and USL did its own shuffling. With four quarterbacks in all, the Shreveport Times called it a game of musical chairs
Tech still went 4-1 in the Southland, earned a share of the conference title and played in the Independence Bowl. But that one loss came against a rival that only won three games all year.
Tech: 34th
SRS Gap: 63
ODU: 95th
Oh yeah, that’s right. The whole reason we were doing this countdown. I had forgotten at some point during this past parade of despair.
Tech traveled to Hampton Roads 6-0 in conference play to face a team in their first season of FBS football. A Tech win would clinch the West division.
For a half, it went to script. Cody Sokol hit Trent Taylor for a touchdown, Kenneth Dixon ran one in, and an interception set up another score, with Tech up 24-14 at intermission.
But then Tech held the ball for just 92 seconds in the entire third quarter. ODU chipped away at the Bulldog lead, before the Monarchs tied it with just over six minutes left. The Bulldogs went three and out, forced an interception, threw an interception, then forced another interception to keep the game tied at 24 and going to overtime.
In OT, Tech had to settle for a field goal, and Old Dominion only needed two plays as Taylor Heinicke hit David Washington for a 19 yarder, followed by an 8 yard touchdown.
The first overtime game in Old Dominion history was also Tech’s worst conference loss.
Tech clinched the West the next week with a 76-31 rout of Rice. But the loss to ODU meant that Tech finished conference play 7-1, tied with the East champion Marshall. And the tie-breaker decided the game would be held in Worst Virginia instead of Ruston.
And considering that game ended up on another one of our lists ranking unfortunate events, it would have been really nice to have home field advantage that year.